INOVO Market Note — Q3 2026

ValuStrat's Dubai index eased 4% over the quarter to 220 points but was broadly unchanged year-on-year, and the prime end kept setting records — 296 homes sold above US$10m in H1 2026, worth US$5.1bn. Abu Dhabi rose 17.8% year-on-year and Ras Al Khaimah 5.4%, led by Al Marjan Island apartments at +9.4%.

Gross rental yields run around 5–7% in Dubai and average 5.3% across Ras Al Khaimah's freehold apartments and villas; Dubai rents fell 6.2% over Q2 and now sit 2.6% below a year ago — a genuine opening for buyers.

Supply is undershooting: only about 20,000 Dubai homes completed in H1 2026, roughly 15% of the year's preliminary target. In Ras Al Khaimah the US$5.1bn Wynn Al Marjan Island resort, due to open in 2027, remains the defining driver.

A record first half: 10,007 sales worth €2.23bn changed hands, up 14.6% year-on-year, with foreign buyers taking about 43% of Q1 purchases.

Gross rental yields are strongest in Limassol at roughly 5.5–6%, with Paphos nearer 4–4.5%.

The €300,000 permanent-residency route keeps non-EU demand high, and Paphos airport's expansion completes in 2027.

The feared post-golden-visa correction never came; demand is lifestyle- and wealth-driven, and agencies expect growth to cool to about 7–9% through 2026.

Gross yields are modest on the prime coast (about 3–5%) and higher inland (about 5–6%).

Acute new-build scarcity — homes are reserved off-plan before ground-break — with Savills forecasting +13–16% new-build growth over 2026–27.

Manchester averaged £251,000 in June 2026, up 2.9% year-on-year, and Savills forecasts North West prices up 25% cumulatively to 2030 — the joint-highest of any UK region. UK private rents rose 3.7% in the year to July 2026, to an average of £1,393 a month.

Whole-market gross yields sit near 4.5% in Manchester; investor-grade city-centre apartments commonly run 6–7%.

Birmingham's HS2 Curzon Street and Smithfield schemes, and Manchester's build-to-rent pipeline, underpin regeneration demand.

Prime west-coast condos trade around 130,000–160,000 THB/m², and villa sales rose 12.9% in 2025.

Gross rental yields run roughly 5–8% on well-managed condos and villas in established rental programmes.

Record tourism — Phuket airport hit an all-time daily high in February 2026 — against a 14-million-arrivals island target.

Agencies estimate land values up about 7–15% a year in the strongest micro-markets — Canggu, Berawa, Pererenan and Uluwatu — though these are agency figures, as no independent Bali price index exists.

Conventional long-let gross yields sit near 4–7.6%; short-let claims run higher, but net returns land well below the headline once costs and tax are counted.

From 31 March 2026, villas marketed on booking platforms must be properly licensed, and a construction moratorium on farmland is tightening new supply.

Prime Tivat and Porto Montenegro trade far higher on agency asking prices (€6,000–15,000/m²), and the Finance Ministry itself warns of speculative overvaluation — so treat prime figures with care.

Gross yields are around 4.6% in Tivat and 5.6% nationally, with seasonal short-lets higher.

A new €150,000 property-residency permit (from 17 January 2026) and a 2028 EU-accession target are driving foreign demand.

Resort standouts included Andermatt (+14.6%), Davos (+10.5%) and St Moritz (+7.1%), while prime Lake Geneva and Lake Zurich have plateaued.

Gross rental yields are low, around 2–3%, as is typical for Switzerland.

A tightening of the Lex Koller foreign-ownership rules is under consultation through mid-2026, which would further restrict non-EU/EFTA buyers.

There is no verified resale track record yet; broker-quoted appreciation figures are unverified marketing, not registry data.

Leaseback programmes advertise 6–15% gross, but a realistic net is nearer 4–6% — treat these as launch claims, not achieved returns.

A Residence-by-Investment programme (live since July 2025) and the first branded completions (Bulgari and Mandarin Oriental in 2026; Baccarat and Nobu in 2027).